US online prediction markets have seen a dramatic 500% rise in bets related to weather and climate events, raising important questions about the implications for players and ethical concerns.
Prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have broadened their offerings beyond traditional sports and cryptocurrency wagers to include markets focused on climate change and extreme weather events. Kalshi recently reported that its weather and climate betting segment has grown to a $1.1 billion market, and it has partnered with the Weather Company, owner of the Weather Channel, to improve the accuracy and credibility of data used in these markets.
For bettors, this expansion introduces new opportunities to wager on outcomes such as temperature fluctuations in specific cities, rates of ice melt, coral reef degradation, and the number of costly climate disasters occurring within a year. However, these developments come with significant concerns about the nature of what is being bet on and the potential harm to players and society.
Climate scientists and responsible gambling advocates have expressed unease about betting on disasters like wildfires, which can trivialize the human suffering involved and potentially distract from urgent climate action. During the 2025 Los Angeles fires, large bets were placed on the event, prompting Kalshi and Polymarket to ban such wagers due to fears that they could incentivize harmful behavior, including arson.
Kaitlyn Trudeau, a scientist at the nonprofit Climate Central, commented, “I find it depressing because it’s distracting us from what we should be focusing on,“ and added, “I’m not against prediction markets in general but we need to be clear about the downsides,“ cautioning that “They aren’t going to reduce the risks of climate change or solve climate change.“
From a player perspective, the accuracy and reliability of these climate-related prediction markets remain uncertain. While such markets can reflect public sentiment and may contribute to forecasting, the complexity and unpredictability of climate change make precise predictions difficult. This uncertainty increases risks for consumers who may place bets on outcomes that are challenging to verify or influence.
Players should also consider the broader responsible gambling context. Wagering on climate events involves unique emotional and ethical challenges, as it directly relates to real-world tragedies and long-term environmental threats. Operators and regulators may need to implement additional safeguards to protect consumers from potential harm.
This trend highlights the rapid evolution of online betting markets, where new opportunities emerge quickly but may outpace existing consumer protections. Bettors interested in these markets should exercise caution and stay informed about the risks involved.
For further information on prediction markets and player safety, see related coverage on Betting and Responsible Gambling.
Read the full Guardian report: Would you bet on the future of our planet?
Additional context on prediction markets and regulatory challenges can be found in The Guardian’s article on the rise of prediction markets in the US, including cases of insider trading bans: Prediction markets have become Americas new national pastime.
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