Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly expanding across the US, including in states with limited gambling support services, raising concerns among public health advocates about increasing gambling-related harms.
These platforms enable users to place bets on a wide variety of events, ranging from sports outcomes to entertainment awards. Their growing presence is marked by aggressive marketing campaigns, including sponsorships during major events like the NBA finals and UFC fights, which have significantly increased their visibility and user engagement.
Unlike traditional sports betting operators, which are regulated on a state-by-state basis, prediction markets operate under federal oversight by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This regulatory framework allows them to function in states where gambling is otherwise prohibited, such as Utah and Hawaii. However, this has led to legal challenges from several states seeking to apply their own gambling laws to these platforms.
For players and bettors, this expansion means easier access to new forms of betting but also raises concerns about consumer protection. The platforms’ federal regulatory status may result in fewer safeguards and limited resources for individuals who develop gambling problems. Addiction psychiatrist Timothy Fong from UCLA highlighted the risks, stating, “When you expand access and availability and normalization of it, youre going to have more participation,” and “When you have more participation and engagement in risky products, youre going to have more problems, youre going to have more side effects.”
Public health resources to address problem gambling are struggling to keep pace with the rapid growth of these markets. For example, California allocates approximately $9 million annually to problem gambling support, a fraction compared to the hundreds of millions spent on tobacco and alcohol-related harms. This disparity highlights the limited support available for consumers who might experience gambling-related harm from prediction markets.
Players should be aware that while these platforms offer novel betting opportunities, the risks of gambling-related harm remain significant, especially in regions with scarce support services. It is important to approach such betting options cautiously and seek help if gambling causes distress.
The ongoing legal disputes over whether prediction markets should be regulated at the state or federal level will influence future consumer protections and access. The CFTC has affirmed its commitment to maintaining a unified federal regulatory framework. A spokesperson said, “The CFTC will defend that jurisdiction against overzealous states that attempt to bypass federal law.“
Meanwhile, public health advocates continue to call for increased support and resources to address the rising incidence of gambling harm linked to these platforms. The rapid expansion of prediction markets underscores the need for balanced regulation that protects consumers while allowing innovation.
For further information on gambling regulation and player protection in the US, visit our USA section and Responsible Gambling coverage.
Read the full report from The Guardian for additional context: Prediction markets surge in US as public health advocates call for support to combat gambling.
Related coverage includes calls for stricter regulation of gambling sponsorships in sports, such as the recent push to ban Premier League clubs from accepting unlicensed gambling money, detailed in our Guardian report.
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